Waiting for the Fed's pivot*

The U.S. consumer inflation data for February is out and shows a strong decline on all forecasts:
M/M = +0.4% (og +0.4% / pre +0.5%)
YoY = +6% (og +6% / pred +6.4%)
BASE CPI = +5.5% YoY (OBJ +5.5% / Pred +5.6%)


Amid recent turbulence in the banking system, this is one of the surest signs for a rally in risky assets. From Thursday to Monday we saw the liquidity problems of American and European banks in the form of death of Silicon Valley Bank and a small domino effect throughout the system, which was stopped by US regulators, who announced support plans - we wrote about all this. In the aftermath, markets began to predict a halt to the Fed's rate hike. Today's data gives the Fed a chance to halt the hike and keep a good face.


The most likely scenario is that the rate will be raised by 0.25 points at the March 21 meeting and a pause will be announced. An even more positive scenario for the markets is that the rate will not be raised at all. Either way, we can expect growth in the U.S. stock markets and cryptocurrency markets - Bitcoin has already broken through the key resistance of $25,000. Not a financial recommendation.
*Pivot - significant changes in business development strategy. In this case, a change of policy by the U.S. central bank.
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